Canadians are reacting to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s refusal to step down after the shocking Toronto-St. Paul byelection results.
Conservative candidate Don Stewart won the byelection in a longtime Liberal riding in Toronto, garnering over 42.1 percent of the vote.
Following the loss, Liberal leader Trudeau released a statement applauding Liberal candidate Leslie Church for running a strong campaign and congratulating Stewart on his victory in the tightly fought race.
He directly addressed Toronto-St. Paul residents, stating that he hears voters “loud and clear” while responding to speculations about his resignation.
“These are not easy times. And it is clear, I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel,” the prime minister said, hinting that he was not resigning.
Now Toronto got perspective from Nelson Wiseman, professor of political science, University of Toronto who said, “Trudeau doubled down on what he’s been saying for the last four to six months.”
Wiseman says he does not see this Conservative win as a “turning point” for the Liberal party.
He believes the Liberals will win the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding in the general election due to different dynamics and demographics compared to a byelection.
Noting that election outcomes boils down to voter motivation, he says in the Toronto-St. Paul byelection, Conservative supporters were motivated by a desire to “get rid of Trudeau,” whereas Liberal voters may turn out in the general election because they “don’t want Poilievre.”
Since Trudeau’s statement, Canadians have been quick to pour out their frustrations on social media with many calling for Trudeau to resign, and others saying he is “too late” in addressing the concerns of the people.
“If Trudeau is listening to Canadians, he’d hear loud and clear that we want him to resign and we want an election. So far, neither have happened,” says one X user.
Another user expressed concern about the damage Trudeau could cause if he stays in power: “He can do a lot more damage to Cda in the remaining time he’s in power & that’s what he’s determined to do. We need a mechanism to get rid of bad [government] in [Canada].”
“Trudeau will hear the concerns loud and clear October 2025 when they lose every seat!,” added another X user.
Where is this reaction coming from?
University of Toronto political science associate professor Christopher Cochrane says “It’s understandable that people would wish the solution to a party’s political turmoil could be resolved by a leader change, but the real problem for the federal Liberals is that their brand was in deep trouble before Trudeau took over.”
A recent Angus Reid Institute survey suggests that while Canadians are increasingly frustrated with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, this sentiment might not determine the Liberal party’s future.
Additionally, Wiseman says the average shelf life of a prime minister in Canada is a decade. He says people’s reaction “is not unusual” as it comes from dissatisfaction given the many issues the country faces including higher cost of living, housing and immigration challenges.
“People think it’s time for change,” he added.
“When Trudeau got elected in 2015, he was young and authentic but since then he has picked up a lot of baggage including Arrive Canada, SNC Lavalin scandals,” Wiseman said, citing ongoing issues under Trudeau’s government.
“I think he will step down but nobody knows for sure, it’s up to him,” he believes.
Chances for the Liberals to win the upcoming elections
Both Wiseman and Cochrane are not optimistic about the future of the Liberal party.
Wiseman believes the Liberals have a “very narrow window of possibility,” suggesting that the party’s best chance is for Trudeau to step down and for a new leader, not associated with Trudeau, to take over.
“I think there’s a 90 per cent chance they’re going to lose but the 10 per cent chance is Trudeau steps down and they select a Liberal leader that isn’t related to Trudeau, in other words, not Chrysia Freeland,” he said.
“With all due respect, Canadians have spoken loud and clear – we don’t want Trudeau and we absolutely don’t want Freeland,” one X user said.
“I do not love Trudeau, neither do I hate him. I feel his heart is in the right place. He truly loves this country and was raised by a man who taught him when things get tough, as they will, you strengthen your resolve. I believe Canada is in good hands with Liberals at the helm,” another X user remarked.
Wiseman says he sees the efforts of Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, in “practicing for the job.” If Trudeau steps down and Carney as a new Liberal leader and people see them as a new party, they might have a chance.
Cochrane, however, doubts that either Chrystia Freeland or Carney will bring the same impact that Trudeau did when he became the Liberal party leader in 2013.
He thinks the only “faint hope” for the Liberals is if the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, remains weak compared to the NDP’s strength under Jack Layton in 2011.
Liberals might receive a “last-minute boost” if left-leaning voters become wary of Poilievre’s continued success in rallying Conservative support.
Cochrane estimates that the Liberals have a five percent chance of winning the upcoming election, but he also believes the party faces an equal chance of being “utterly decimated or losing official party status in the next elections.”
