What to know
- Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 49 per cent to 41 per cent among decided and leaning voters, according to a new Liaison Strategies poll.
- Toronto residents are evenly divided on the city’s direction, with 46 per cent saying it’s on the right track and 46 per cent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction.
- Chow maintains a positive job approval rating of 51 per cent, while Bradford continues to build name recognition among voters.
- Chow leads in downtown, North York and Scarborough, while Bradford’s strongest support comes from Etobicoke.
A new poll suggests Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow remains the clear front-runner in the mayoral race, but a split in the city’s direction could leave room for challenger Brad Bradford to gain ground.
The poll, released by Liaison Strategies on Wednesday, found that if the election were held today, Chow would receive 49 per cent of the vote among decided and leaning voters, compared to 41 per cent for her main challenger, Brad Bradford.
Among all respondents, including undecided voters, Chow sits at 39 per cent support, while Bradford has 33 per cent. Another eight per cent said they would vote for someone else, and 20 per cent remain undecided.
Toronto residents split on city’s direction
Despite Chow’s lead, the survey suggests many Torontonians are dissatisfied with the city’s overall direction.
The poll found residents are evenly split, with 46 per cent saying Toronto is moving in the right direction and another 46 per cent saying it is moving in the wrong direction. The remaining eight per cent said they were unsure.
“The direction-of-city number is the bigger warning sign for City Hall. Right direction and wrong direction are tied at 46% apiece. That means Chow can still be personally ahead while the city’s mood is not especially happy,” Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin said in a news release.
Chow’s personal approval ratings remain positive, with 51 per cent approving of her performance as mayor, compared to 43 per cent who disapprove. Another six per cent said they were unsure.
Bradford continues to gain recognition
While Bradford remains well behind Chow in voting intentions, the poll suggests he is becoming better known to voters.
His favourability rating stands at 31 per cent, while 26 per cent view him unfavourably. Thirteen per cent said they were unsure of their opinion, while 31 per cent said they were not familiar with him.
“He still has room to introduce himself to voters, but as more people form an opinion of him, both his favourable and unfavourable numbers can rise. He is becoming more of a real challenger, and that also means becoming more defined,” Valentin said.
Regional divide emerges
The poll also highlights where each candidate is performing strongest across the city.
Among decided and leaning voters, Chow leads Bradford downtown by 55 per cent to 36 per cent, in North York by 52 per cent to 37 per cent, and in Scarborough by 50 per cent to 41 per cent.
Bradford’s strongest region is Etobicoke, where he leads Chow 54 per cent to 35 per cent.
“For Chow, the danger is not that voters have turned decisively against her. The danger is that a merely mixed city mood gives Bradford enough room to keep making the race more competitive,” Valentin said.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents between July 24 and July 26, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
