What to know
- Olivia Chow leads a potential mayoral field with 35 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for Brad Bradford.Among decided voters, Chow leads 43.6 per cent to 37.8 per cent.
- In a hypothetical two-candidate race, Bradford narrowly leads Chow 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent.
- More than 60 per cent of respondents believe Toronto is heading in the wrong direction.
- Traffic, affordability and public safety remain the top issues identified by voters.
A new poll suggests Toronto’s next mayoral race could be far more competitive than expected, with support for Mayor Olivia Chow tightening against Councillor Brad Bradford.
A survey released Tuesday by Mainstreet Research shows Chow maintaining a lead in a multi-candidate race, but Bradford gaining significant ground compared to previous polling.
If a municipal election were held today, 35 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Chow, while 30 per cent said they would support Bradford.
Among decided voters, Chow’s support rises to 43.6 per cent, compared to 37.8 per cent for Bradford.
The results mark a dramatic shift from Mainstreet’s February snapshot, which included former mayor John Tory. At that time, Bradford’s support stood at just 17 per cent.
Bradford Leads in Hypothetical Head-to-Head Matchup
The race becomes even tighter when respondents are asked to choose between only Chow and Bradford.
In a hypothetical two-way contest, Bradford narrowly edges out the incumbent mayor, earning 51.9 per cent support compared to Chow’s 48.1 per cent.
The findings suggest Bradford could consolidate support from voters who currently back other candidates or remain undecided.
Concerns About City’s Direction
The poll also points to broader dissatisfaction among Toronto residents.
More than 60 per cent of respondents said the city is headed in the wrong direction, while just 23.2 per cent believe Toronto is on the right track.
Chow’s approval rating sits at 41 per cent, while more than 55 per cent of respondents said they disapprove of her performance as mayor.
When asked how likely they are to support Chow in the next election, 45 per cent said they would definitely not vote for her. Meanwhile, 17 per cent said they would definitely vote for the mayor, 32 per cent said they would consider supporting her and four per cent remained unsure.
Traffic, Affordability and Safety Top Voter Concerns
As the next municipal election begins to take shape, respondents identified traffic and congestion as their top concern at 27.3 per cent.
Affordability followed closely behind at 25.8 per cent, while crime and public safety ranked third at 23.5 per cent.
The survey also found continued opposition to the proposed expansion of Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport. More than half of respondents (54.8 per cent) said they oppose the expansion, while fewer than one in 10 strongly support it.
The survey was conducted between June 12 and June 18, 2026, among 1,157 Toronto residents aged 18 and older. Data was collected through SMS-to-online surveys and interactive voice response (IVR) calls.
The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
