With a week left until Ontarians head to the polls, questions around voter intention are coming to the forefront.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, many Ontarians, so far, are making their voting intentions known.
“I care about the election, and I am absolutely going to vote,” Celeste Sansegrete told Now Toronto on Thursday. “I think voting should be mandatory.”
“If you don’t voice your opinion, then someone will voice it for you,” Jory M. emphasized.
Another Toronto resident, Mackenzie Holden, even assured that he’d be voting early today.
Recent poll tracking surveys by Leger put Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (48 per cent) in the lead ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party (28 per cent), Marit Stiles’s Ontario NDP (16 per cent), and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party (5 per cent).
Surveys also show that Ontarians’ impression of Ford has improved by 18 per cent since the start of the election. Currently, he’s seen as the best party leader for managing most issues in Ontario, Leger said, including defending Ontario’s interests from aggressive U.S. trade and economic sanctions, expanding Ontario’s street and highway infrastructure, and to grow Ontario’s economy.
Ford leads in improvement ahead of Crombie’s 16 per cent, who had a three-point increase compared to last week.
But in the last 2022 provincial election, more than half of Ontarians didn’t bother to cast their ballots.
In fact, the province recorded the lowest voter turnout in history during that election, according to Elections Ontario, with just about 43.5 per cent of eligible voters. Of the just over 10.7 million registered voters in the province, this equalled just over 4.6 million votes cast.
WHAT’S INFLUENCING VOTERS TO HEAD TO THE POLLS?
University of Toronto Professor Emeritus of Political Science Nelson Wiseman says people vote for different reasons. While some stay loyal to the party they’ve always voted for in the past, others are swing voters, varying their votes depending on what party’s platform they like best. For example, Wiseman says rural Ontario, much like other conservative communities in the world, are more likely to lean towards the PC Party.
“People in rural areas around the world are more conservative than urban residents everywhere,” he said to Now Toronto on Thursday.
“They tend to be poorer areas. They tend to be areas which aren’t as diverse. They tend to be areas who feel that all the attention goes to cities when you get debates about rent control and transportation.”
Wiseman says looking ahead, he wouldn’t be surprised if the voter turnout may drop even lower, citing that the snap winter election may not be on Ontarians’ minds.
“Some people might be upset that they’re being asked to go out to vote… even opposition leaders keep asking, ‘Why are we having an election?’ That hasn’t been an issue in the last number of elections,” he said.
On the other hand, York University professor and political expert Ian Roberge says voter turnout could go either way. He argues that while the recent bout of wintry weather could put a dent in voters’ plans to leave their homes, there are several circumstances that may play a major role in why the turnout may increase this time around.
“People are in town and they’re working… This is a time when people are generally turning on the news, they certainly would be aware of some of the friction between the United States and Canada that may be top of mind,” Roberge said to Now Toronto on Friday.
Roberge says in past elections, there’s often a key issue at the centre that dominates the race. Though there are plenty of issues Ontarians would want their next premier to address, he points to the tariff tensions as the biggest theme this election, which he says Ford has already presented himself in a position to take the lead in the fight against the U.S.
“We’ve seen the opposition parties trying to bring some of the conversation back to health care, to education, to housing. They’ve not had probably as much success as they would have wanted,” he said.
“All the other opposition parties want to speak to the Conservatives’ record and what has, in their opinion, not worked. They want to speak about the RCMP investigation, and they want to speak to the Greenbelt and everything else. But it doesn’t really seem to stick, and the message doesn’t really seem to land.”
WHY SHOULD YOU VOTE?
Roberge encourages Ontarians to head out and vote on Feb. 27, as he stresses that not only is it part of your civic duty and responsibility, but it’s sure to make a difference.
“This has a significant impact on your future,” he urged.
“Environmental issues are no longer at the forefront of conversation despite the effects that we’re seeing from climate change. If everyone that cares deeply about that kind of issue were all to go out and vote, it would significantly affect what we’re seeing in terms of policies. If you were to significantly go out and vote and speak to the quality of education that they’re receiving in universities and colleges and high school, it would have an impact.”
