The federal election is only days away and latest polling numbers show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives nationally, but experts say the Liberals still hold a strong lead.
A poll released by Liaison Strategies on Wednesday shows the Liberals leading with 42 per cent, and the Conservatives following closely behind with 39 per cent.
The poll saw the Liberals lose one percentage point and the Conservatives gain two percentage points when compared to a Liaison Strategies poll released on Tuesday.
The poll surveyed 1,500 Canadians using voice interactive technology, with a margin of error of plus 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
A Nanos Research poll released on Thursday also shows the Liberals leading with 42 per cent and the Conservatives climbing to 39 per cent.
In an interview with Now Toronto, Principal at Liaison Strategies David Valentin says that “it’s a tight race nationally,” but the Conservatives are still being held back by an “inefficient vote” in prairie provinces.
“They have a lot of popular vote, but it’s stuck in all the wrong places, stuck in places where they can’t win any more seats because there’s only so many seats in Alberta to begin with,” Valentin said.
Due to this factor, Valentin says that the race may not be as close as some people think.
“I’m pretty confident at this particular point that unless there is a massive polling error, or there is a lot of movement over the weekend, that is, it’s going to be a Liberal government,” he said.
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Despite this, whether or not a potential Liberal win will result in a majority or minority government still remains a mystery, according to Valentin.
However, that does not mean a Conservative win is impossible at the moment, Valentin says that there are a few different paths that could result in a win, such as voter turnout, which most pollsters expect to be around 70 per cent according to Valentin, an improvement from the last three elections.
“But if turnout is 80 per cent well, none of us have modeled or looked at what the possibility for that would be. So, there are ways for the Conservatives to win, there’s just very few paths,” Valentin said.
More than seven million voters cast their ballot during advanced voting from Apr. 18-21 in a record-breaking turnout, according to Elections Canada.
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Advanced voting was up 25 per cent from the 2021 election.
The federal election will be held on Monday, where polls will be open for 12 hours, In Ontario, polls will open at 9:30 a.m. and close at 9:30 p.m.
