What to know
- GTA home sales rose seven per cent year-over-year in April, while new listings dropped 9.3 per cent, signalling a tighter market.
- Wahi’s Economist Ryan McLaughlin says the shift reflects a rebound from historically low sales in 2024 rather than a full market recovery.
- Most neighbourhoods are still seeing underbidding, though overbidding activity ticked up slightly month-over-month.
- Despite the tightening conditions, average home prices remain down 4.9 per cent compared to last year, with future increases expected but not guaranteed.
April real-estate reports are in, revealing a slightly tighter spring market for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including increase in year-over-year sales and fewer available listings.
A report by the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) revealed 5,946 GTA home sales in April, which is a seven per cent year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, new listings went down by 9.3 per cent in the same period, standing at 17,097.
Ryan McLaughlin, an economist with real-estate platform Wahi, tells Now Toronto the numbers would indicate a tighter market for the city this spring, in comparison with what has been observed over the past year.
“The sales to active listings ratio is much tighter, because we’ve got higher sales and lower active listings compared to last year, and that and sales to active listings ratio is one of the best indicators of market tightness. So, the market certainly tightened since this time last year, at least in the GTA,” he explained.
While it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what might have driven the increase in sales, McLaughlin says the simplest explanation is an expected shift in the market.
Over the last year, prices have significantly declined, while buyers remained hesitant to jump in due to global economic uncertainty. However, this situation was expected to be reversed at some point.
“Last year, we’re sort of at record lows almost for sales. So, the fact that we picked up seven per cent year over year from there doesn’t mean we’re in a hot market or anything, but we’re a little up from exceptionally low levels,” he said. “I don’t think it’s totally shocking that things have reversed.”
A Wahi report also revealed that 13 per cent of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five home sales went through overbidding in April, which is a six per cent increase from March. Meanwhile 84 per cent were still in underbidding territory, while two per cent sold at-asking.
Despite the uptick, McLaughlin says it’s still not possible to say for certain whether prices will start to go up again from now on, although they are expected to rise at some point.
“It’s reasonable to say that the sales to active listings ratio continues to tighten. That historical relationship, which is between the sales to active listings ratio and the price level will continue to hold, and prices will start to pick up. I wouldn’t be able to say when, but as the market tightens, the price level will adjust,” he explained.
Meanwhile, the average home selling price was still down by 4.9 per cent compared to last April, standing at $1,051,969 in the GTA.
