What to know
- Canada could be 5º C warmer by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue on a similar path, while some parts of northern Canada could see winter warming of more than 10º C.
- A warmer climate could mean more extreme rainfall, storms, droughts and dangerous heat, with extreme rainfall potentially increasing by 40 per cent.
- Northern Canada could face particularly severe impacts, including faster permafrost thaw and potentially ice-free Arctic summers, threatening infrastructure, ecosystems and traditional ways of life.
- Cutting emissions to net zero could limit Canada’s warming to about 3.5º C by 2100, but reversing the warming already experienced would take centuries.
- One expert says governments need to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a warmer climate by strengthening infrastructure and protecting communities at risk of flooding, fires and extreme weather.
As Toronto continues to face the aftermath of a devastating thunderstorm, a climate expert is warning similar events could become more frequent in Canada, as the country could become 5ºC hotter by the end of the century.
The latest Canada’s Changing Climate Report, a scientific assessment of climate change, revealed that if emissions continue on a similar path to what they are currently like, the country could see an average increase of 5ºC by the year 2100.
Meanwhile, under the current policies, northern Canada could see an even more significant increase, exceeding 10°C in some regions during the winter by 2100.
This comes after a report by the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) found that Canada’s temperature was rising twice as fast as the global average, which could lead to more extremely hot days and extreme weather events.
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What does that mean for Canadians?
Although 5ºC might seem like a lower number, Ryan Ness, a director of adaptation at the CCI, tells Now Toronto that it could make an enormous difference.
“When you think of the fact that an ice age, for example, can start with just a couple degrees of global cooling, we’re talking [about] that order of magnitude of the kind of change we’re making to our climate,” he explained.
“Every degree of climate change means more storms, more extreme rainfall, more droughts, and more unlivable hot days. So, while the number itself is small, the impacts are huge.”
In fact, the expert said that if Canada in fact does reach the 5ºC increase, the country could see 40 per cent more extreme rainfall, similar to the storm that hit Toronto earlier this week.
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As climate change is already underway, the report published this week reveals that the country will also see a gradual increase in temperatures, rising to 2.7° C warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next two decades.
“Our climate is already over two degrees warmer than it was before humans started putting greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Over the rest of this decade and the next, we’re going to be almost three degrees warmer, and then that just continues to grow,” Ness said.
In Northern Canada, the more significant temperature increase could bring devastating changes to the local population, with the possibility of completely ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean, which has never occurred before, and could even disrupt the country’s ecosystems.
“Permafrost will continue to thaw much faster, which means that homes and infrastructure and roads will continue to sort of fall into the ground… It’ll be fundamental changes to the livelihoods and lives of people who rely on the ice for transportation, for food, for cultural ceremonies,” he said.
“For the rest of the country, that means needing to support those parts of Canada through very difficult times.”
Is climate change still reversible?
Given the effects that have already been felt from climate change, Ness said the phenomenon is now no longer completely reversible. However, by changing environmental and climate policies, there could be significant improvement that could stop climate change from advancing in the future.
According to the report, if emissions are reduced to net-zero in the near future, Canada could see a 3.5º C increase by 2100 instead of a 5º C increase.
But even if emissions remain extremely low, Ness warns it’d be possible to stop climate change from evolving, but it could take centuries to reverse it.
“If we get greenhouse gas emissions under control, things will level off and even dip down slightly at the end of the century, so that we can control things to 3.5º C, and it will be leveled. It will not continue,” he said.
“But very very slowly, on the order of centuries, before things get back to normal.”
What needs to be done to reverse it?
With the report suggesting that Canada will be at least 3.5º C hotter by 2100 under net-zero emissions, Ness said the three levels of government must prepare to support Canadians affected by extreme weather and prevent weather-related infrastructure issues.
“We have to invest in adapting to that new reality, hardening our infrastructure, protecting our communities, and helping people who have homes in flood and fire risk areas. We’re just not moving fast enough on that,” he warned.
Meanwhile, the government must also take action to control greenhouse gas emissions, which could be the safest path to controlling climate change effects.
“We still have a choice on what happens beyond that 3.5º C, and if we and the rest of the world get on top of greenhouse gas emissions and bring them down, we can avoid the worst. But again, current federal policy on greenhouse gas emissions does not show a path to net zero,” he emphasized.
