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COVID-19 is “not escalating” in Toronto: de Villa

A photo of Halloween decorations in Toronto

Toronto officials are cautiously hailing Halloween weekend a success in the fight against COVID-19, with only one large anti-masker Halloween party resulting in charges.

Toronto Fire Chief and General Manager of Emergency Management Matthew Pegg said during a press conference at city hall that the organizer of a “large Halloween event” with 60-70 people was charged with violating gathering rules.

A Toronto Police superintendent added that the event was a Halloween party hosted by anti-maskers.

Other than that event, police and bylaw enforcement officials had a relatively quiet weekend, Pegg said.

Of the 33 complaints related to private gatherings that the city received over the weekend, Pegg said only two resulted in tickets being issued.

Medical Officer of Health Eileen de Villa said there were 330 new cases of COVID-19 reported in Toronto on Monday. She added that confirmed cases seem to have plateaued at just above 300 infections per day and the reproductive number is at one.

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“While this is not where I would like our numbers to be, the situation is not escalating,” de Villa said, cautioning that residents still need to practice physical distancing and continue to follow public health advice.

She noted that the COVID-19 resurgence in the United Kingdom forced the country to re-introduce national lockdown measures, which will take effect later this week.

“Our comparative good fortune in this country and in Toronto is something we should try our very best to protect,” she added.

The reproductive number indicates the average number of people that will contract a contagious disease from one infected person. De Villa has previously said a reproductive number of one means the pandemic is not getting better or worse and lower than one means the virus will “slowly die out.”

De Villa also said Halloween weekend went well in Toronto.

Provincial public health officials had warned against trick-or-treating this year, drawing a backlash from parents.

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However, De Villa said she had heard anecdotal info that there were less door-to-door festivities and more instances of families finding creative ways to celebrate Halloween, like physically distanced costume parades.

“I just want to extend my thanks to these people,” she said. “We’re going to need resilience and imagination and adaptability to get through the winter and the days ahead when we’re getting vaccinations and putting COVID-19 behind us.”

Toronto’s reopening under “active discussion”

Toronto, Peel, Ottawa and York remain under modified Stage 2 restrictions that have forced the closure of indoor dining, gyms, cinemas and other businesses.

The 28-day rollback is due to expire this week in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa and next week in York.

De Villa and Mayor John Tory both said allowing Toronto businesses to reopen from modified COVID-19 restrictions is still under “active discussion” with provincial public health officials.

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“I’ve been pushing for scenarios that involve doors open safely,” Tory said. “Perhaps with a diminished business they can nonetheless do business and do it safely.”

Earlier in the day, Premier Doug Ford said a decision on easing restrictions in the hotspots will be made “very soon.” During a press conference in Mississauga, Ford said he expected to receive advice from his public health team later in the day.

Last week, Ford said he asked public health officials to come up with a safe reopening plan for indoor dining and other businesses.

“I’ve asked the health team to look at easing the restrictions to be able to move forward in a safe manner. They’re putting that together and they’re going to present that to me,” he said.

Ontario Projection Modelling October 29 2020

The government decision to close restaurants, bars and gyms has drawn criticism from the business community after provincial modelling data presented on October 29 showed that outbreaks in bars, restaurants and gyms since August 1 was lower than those in schools, daycares and long-term care homes.

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Between August 1 and October 24, 14 per cent of outbreaks in Toronto were in clubs, bars and restaurants, 18 per cent were in long-term care homes and 22 per cent were in schools and child-care centres.

Those numbers were significantly lower in the other three hot spots regions.

Restaurants accounted for eight per cent of outbreaks in York, three per cent of outbreaks in Peel and two per cent of outbreaks in Ottawa.

The data projections showed a worst-case scenario of the province’s seven-day average in new infections hitting 1,000-1,200. The best-case scenario put the number at around 800 cases per day.

The modelling data showed the epidemic growth slowing. Though hospitalizations are up, provincial medical experts believe hospitals will not be overburdened with COVID-19 patients except in the worst-case scenario.

On Monday, Ontario recorded 948 new infections in the past 24 hours. The seven-day average for new cases is now at a record high of 919.

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