What to know
- A new Liaison Strategies poll shows the Ontario Liberals leading with 38 per cent support, while the PCs trail at 36 per cent, NDP at 20 per cent, and the Greens at 4 per cent.
- This is the first time the PCs have fallen behind since Liaison began monthly tracking, reflecting a long-term decline in Doug Ford’s numbers.
- Only 27 per cent of Ontarians approve of Ford’s performance, with 68 per cent disapproving; controversies like the private jet issue have damaged his personal brand.
- Despite low approval, 57 per cent still view Ford as strong and decisive, though public perception may shift if further controversies emerge.
A new poll shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Progressive Conservatives, with a majority of respondents saying they would vote Liberal if an election were held today.
The Liaison Strategies poll, released Wednesday, found the Liberals at 38 per cent among decided and leaning voters. The Progressive Conservatives (PC) trailed closely at 36 per cent, followed by the NDP at 20 per cent and the Green Party at four per cent.
This is the first time the PCs have fallen behind since Liaison began its monthly tracking of Ontario political trends.
David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies, told Now Toronto that the shift reflects a long-term trend of gradual losses for Doug Ford’s government.
“Although it stalled for a bit due to heavy advertising, recent controversies have caused numbers to drop,” he said.
Valentin pointed to the private jet controversy as a major factor.
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“First they bought a jet, then he canceled it. We’re really seeing a cratering of Doug Ford’s personal numbers. His personal brand is taking a big hit,” he said.
The poll also highlights ongoing struggles for Ford’s approval. Only 27 per cent of Ontarians approve of the job he has done, while 68 per cent disapprove.
“We asked Ontarians: Does Doug Ford care about people like you? Is he honest and trustworthy? Do you trust him to manage the province’s finances? On all three, the answer was ‘No, no, and absolutely not,’” Valentin said.
Despite these low approval ratings, 57 per cent of respondents still see Ford as strong and decisive, compared to 38 per cent who disagree.
Regarding the jet purchase specifically, 62 per cent of respondents believe Ford only apologized because he was caught, while just 29 per cent think his apology was sincere.
Valentin noted that the numbers could shift, particularly if Ford avoids further controversy.
“It’s possible things will reset next month, and the summer lull gives them some breathing room as the legislature fades from view. However, this government has been around for a while and has accumulated baggage. When voters turn on a politician, they don’t usually come back,” he said.
