So numerous are the permutations at City Hall these days, it's hard sometimes to know what our lovable mayor, Rob Ford, is thinking, or if he's thinking at all.
Who am I kidding? If we know anything from Ford's first 60-plus days, it's that he's an ideologue, which is to say he's not one to let the facts get in the way of a bad idea. But ideology can only take you so far in politics. At some point there'll have to be a reckoning. Will Ford's plan to privatize garbage be it? I'm not sure.
A scheme to privatize curbside garbage and recycling pickup for 165,000 homes west of Yonge was the big news Monday, February 7, the talking point for council meeting number three in the Ford Reign of Terror.
But in the time to kill before the 12:30 pm presser in the members' lounge, another kind of trash talk was being heard on the council floor. That was about city funding of the Pan Am Games - more specifically, the millions in cost overruns associated with unforeseen soil cleanup costs on the site of the aquatic centre planned for Scarborough.
Here, all the king's horses and all the king's men, aka members of Ford's executive, were willing to look beyond the bottom line, stressing the need for rec facilities in a challenged part of Scarborough and the "legacy" the Games will leave our children, not to mention 1,000 permanent jobs, etc, etc....
I think I heard the words "prudent, careful and wise" in Councillor Michael Thompson's speech.
A few of Ford's crew were certainly tying themselves in knots on this one, on the one hand labelling the overruns a "fiscal fiasco," then turning right around and voting to spend the money.
Maybe the Games' sports angle is what got Football Ford's boys to line up behind the extra spending. Because when it comes to financial planning, this council has been decidedly short-term in its thinking. The modus operandi during deliberations on the budget has been "cut now, ask questions later."
It's hard to believe the current mayor won by promising to run the city like a business. Businesses invest in long-term growth. Ford and Co., on the other hand, have focused on feel-good one-offs to save taxpayers a nickel here, $60 there, at the expense of important city services like Parks and Rec and libraries, to name just two.
And now they're about to do it again with their plan to privatize garbage collection and sell a core city service down the river. For what, besides less government, is unclear.
Monday's drama around the council chamber seemed to sum up Ford's tenure so far. If a map is being used to find the buried treasure, wherever or whatever it may be (hint: less government), it must have come out of a bubble gum machine.
It's overstating matters to call this attempt to privatize garbage a plan, because as yet there is no plan. City staff have been dispatched to come back with one by mid-May, at which point council will debate its merits - or so we hope - and vote on whether to contract out or not.
Toronto Civic Employees' Union Local 416 has been put on notice, but very little has been thought through, judging by the confusion on some questions and attempts to cut off the press gallery on others during Monday's media conference.
Ford was at the podium for all of 45 seconds to give his spiel. You know, "I was elected to privatize garbage" - yeah, and bring an NFL team to Toronto - "yada, yada, yada."
And then he was gone, off to perform his mayoral duties with the kids from the football team that beat Ford's charges in the playoffs last fall. How sweet.
No questions, no answers, leaving Councillor Adam Vaughan shaking his head. "I'm ashamed to be a former journalist," said Vaughan, only half-joking as he readied himself for the camera for a live-to-air spot on CP24. "We would have chased after him down the stairs." Vaughan's got a point.
The biggest contract to perhaps be handed out in the city's history and the mayor's not the one answering questions?
Enter Denzil Minnan-Wong, chair of the Public Works and Infrastructure Committee, who was just as fuzzy on the details, including the crucial matter of how much money privatization would save. During the election it was $20 million. On Monday that figure was $8 million. Of course, the actual savings, if any, will depend on the kind of deal the city can cut. In these things, the math can get wonky.
Minnan-Wong is already working with half a deck. According to the union, more than 50 per cent of the 300 workers whose jobs would be affected by the move to privatize are entitled to reassignment under the current collective agreement. Minnan-Wong's working with different numbers. He says some 210 are temporary workers and would not have to be redeployed. The next morning on CBC Radio, the story changed again. City savings would come from benefits that would no longer have to be paid to employees.
As former budget chief Shelley Carroll noted, "Either the deal that's constructed is going to be so particular that it's not going to save us a hell of a lot of money, or we're going to have a fire sale." Carroll wants outside consultants to monitor the contracting-out process to make sure we don't end up getting shafted.
Etobicoke has private garbage collection. What's the big deal, right? Well, the former City of York had privatized garbage pickup, too, only to have it brought back in-house four years ago for $4 million in savings.
Another big unknown is what private garbage pickup would mean for the city's ambitious recycling efforts, which in other cities have tended to get lost in private contracts. On that count, the guy in charge of Solid Waste Management, Geoff Rathbone, was unusually taciturn, directing questions from the media to corporate communications.
Don't look now, but would incineration be part of the equation? The mayor's press secretary isn't ruling it out. "The focus is outsourcing and all that entails," says Adrienne Batra.
Local 416, president Mark Ferguson offered brave words about the unions gearing up for a fight. "This is a deliberate attempt to inflame the situation," he said.
Ferguson's right about that. The reality is that this city enjoys some of the best waste management services in the province, if not the continent. The Ontario Municipal Benchmarking Report released in 2009 illustrates that point. (See graphic, previous page.)
But what option does the union really have? A strike? That wouldn't help bring the public onside, and the city is already making contingency plans to hire replacement workers if the TCEU gets any bright ideas.
Advertising campaigns and door-to-door lobbying efforts are being kicked about as part of a PR strategy. A report will be released Friday (February 11) to debunk right-wing think tank the C.D. Howe Institute's claim that privatization would net $49 million in savings.
The smell of the 2009 garbage strike is still fresh in the public's nostrils. The fact that the deal signed then amounted to the lowest wage increase in 12 years (1.75 per cent) doesn't matter a whiff.
Ford has thrown down the gauntlet. For the TCEU, there are two options: fight like crazy or die.