What to know
- Downtown accounted for 40.1 per cent of Toronto’s advance votes, despite representing 35.2 per cent of electors.
- More than 223,000 eligible voters cast advance ballots, the highest number across the past five municipal elections, according to the city.
- Eglinton–Lawrence recorded the highest ward-level advance-voting rate at 16.7 per cent, followed by Toronto–St. Paul’s at 15 per cent.
- Spadina–Fort York saw a sharp increase in advance ballots, but its 8.1 per cent early-voting rate remained below the citywide rate of 10.4 per cent.
Torontonians turned out in record numbers for advance voting in the municipal election, with downtown accounting for a disproportionately large share of ballots cast, according to a new report from Liaison Strategies.
The report found that downtown Toronto accounted for 40.1 per cent of advance votes, despite representing just 35.2 per cent of the city’s electors.
The findings come after the City of Toronto reported that more than 223,000 eligible voters cast ballots during advance voting, the highest number recorded across the past five municipal elections.
Read More
Despite the strong turnout, advance voting was not evenly distributed across the city.
Scarborough accounted for 19.1 per cent of advance votes, despite representing 21.3 per cent of electors. North York accounted for 27.8 per cent of advance votes and 29.8 per cent of electors.
Etobicoke’s share of advance votes was closer to its share of the electorate, at 13 per cent and 13.6 per cent, respectively.
Downtown’s share of advance votes was also slightly lower than in the 2023 mayoral byelection, when it accounted for 41 per cent of ballots cast early.
With downtown considered one of Mayor Olivia Chow’s strongest areas of support, Liaison Strategies suggests the figures could present a challenge for her campaign. However, the advance-voting data does not reveal which candidates voters supported.
Which wards are seeing the highest early-voting rates?
At the ward level, Eglinton-Lawrence recorded the highest advance-voting rate, with roughly one in six electors having already voted, according to Liaison Strategies.
About 15,000 people cast advance ballots in the ward, representing 16.7 per cent of its electors on the August voters’ list.
Toronto-St. Paul’s followed with an advance-voting rate of 15 per cent, followed by Toronto-Danforth at 14.1 per cent, Parkdale-High Park at 12.9 per cent and Beaches-East York at 12.7 per cent.
Three of the five wards with the highest advance-voting rates, Toronto-Danforth, Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, are also among the city’s competitive council races.
All three wards will see a change in representation following the Oct. 26 election. Gord Perks is not seeking re-election in Parkdale-High Park, Brad Bradford is running for mayor rather than seeking another term in Beaches-East York, and Paula Fletcher has announced her retirement in Toronto-Danforth.
More advance votes do not always mean higher turnout
Liaison Strategies cautions that a high number of advance ballots does not necessarily translate into a high voting rate.
Spadina-Fort York, for example, recorded about 10,000 advance votes, an increase of roughly 63 per cent from 2023. However, only 8.1 per cent of the ward’s electors had voted early, below the citywide rate of 10.4 per cent.
The report also points to substantial growth in the ward’s electorate. Spadina-Fort York added 23,183 electors over roughly three years, bringing the total to approximately 123,000.
Toronto’s municipal election will take place on Oct. 26.
