What to know
- MP Lori Idlout crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberal caucus, bringing the party two seats short of a majority.
- Experts say the move makes a Liberal majority government almost certain ahead of three by-elections in Scarborough Southwest, Terrebonne, and University–Rosedale.
- The Liberal Party has benefited from strategic outreach and MPs seeking to join the “winning” side, while the NDP lacks a permanent leader and faces low polling numbers.
- NDP leader Don Davies criticized the floor crossing, saying party representation should remain the choice of voters.
As another federal MP crosses the floor to join Mark Carney’s Liberals, experts say a Liberal majority government is likely to happen ‘no matter what’ during three by-elections set for April.
On Tuesday, NDP leader Don Davies announced that MP Lori Idlout, who represents Nunavut, crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus, putting Carney’s government two seats shy of the required 172 seats.
Read More
Idlout’s floor crossing marks the fourth crossing in four months, including former Conservative MPs Matt Jeneroux, Chris d’Entremont, and Michael Ma.
On Wednesday, Carney posted a video welcoming Idlout into the caucus, showing the caucus greeting her and chanting her name.
With three by-elections set for April 13 in the ridings of Scarborough Southwest, Terrebonne, and University-Rosedale, Principal of Liaison Strategies David Valentin tells Now Toronto that a Liberal majority is almost certain. He says Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale are considered lock-ins for the Liberals.
“Those are two ridings that are widely expected to be Liberal wins when the byelections take place,” Valentin said.
Before Idlout’s crossing, the Liberals would have had to sweep all three ridings in the by-election, however, Valentin says this crossing takes pressure off voters in Terrebonne.
“The voters in Terrebonne, like the rest of us, are learning that this Liberal majority is likely to happen no matter what,” he said.
Valentin says the last time the Liberals lost both ridings were to the NDP, however, he says this is unlikely to happen due to the state of the party.
“The Liberals have called the by-elections at a time when the NDP does not have a permanent leader, so it’s very hard for the NDP candidates to be travelling around the country, trying to get people to vote for them in the leadership race, and also trying to have voters choose them in the by-election,” he said.
But, even if the NDP had a permanent leader, Valentin says this likely wouldn’t change the outcome due to the Liberals being significantly ahead in the polls.
“The NDP are in single digits, and the Liberals are, depending on which poll you look at, anywhere from 44 per cent to 49 per cent right,” he said. “And so they, just on paper, are not going to be able to win those ridings unless they have a really strong star candidate,” Valentin said.
As for why MPs are consistently crossing the floor, Valentin points to strong and strategic outreach from the Liberal caucus.
“Liberals have done a good job of outreach. They knew how many seats they won, and they decided to go on the term offensive,” he said.
He also points to MPs simply wanting to be on the “winning” team.
“There [are] more things that they can do in Parliament as part of the government than they can in opposition,” he said.
Following Idlout’s floor crossing, Davies was quick to express the party’s disappointment.
“We believe that if someone rejects the decision of their electors and wants to join another party, they should put that decision to their voters,” he wrote. “In democracy, something as important as the choice of party representation must always remain with our constituents. We believe that should happen here.”
