What to know
- A new Mainstreet poll shows the Liberals leading in both the upcoming federal and provincial by-elections in Scarborough Southwest, with Doly Begum as their federal candidate.
- The NDP, which currently holds the provincial seat, faces a difficult road to retain it, according to experts, partly due to Begum switching to the federal Liberals.
- Provincially, the Liberals lead with 43% support, followed by the PCs at 29% and the NDP at 19%, while federally Begum garners 57%, Conservatives 22%, and NDP 15%.
- About 20% of voters remain undecided in both races, leaving room for shifts as campaigns progress.
A new poll suggests the Liberals could win the upcoming provincial and federal by-elections in Scarborough Southwest, potentially costing the NDP one of its long-held seats and setting up a difficult road ahead for the party.
The anticipated by-elections were triggered after former federal MP Bill Blair announced his resignation last month to accept a new role as Canada’s next high commissioner to the United Kingdom.
Soon after, the federal Liberals confirmed that former Scarborough Southwest NDP MPP Doly Begum would run as their candidate. Begum, who has represented the riding provincially since 2018 and previously served as the NDP’s deputy leader, is now seeking to make the jump to federal politics with the Liberals.
With both provincial and federal by-elections expected in the same riding, new polling from Mainstreet Research indicates the Liberals are well positioned to win both seats if voting were held today.
According to the survey, 57 per cent of respondents said they would support the Liberal candidate in the federal by-election. The Conservatives trail at 22 per cent, while the NDP sits at 15 per cent.
Provincially, despite the NDP currently holding the seat, the poll suggests 43 per cent of residents would support the Ontario Liberals in a by-election. The Conservatives would receive 29 per cent support, followed by the NDP at 19 per cent.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said the shift may be partly due to Begum’s move to the federal Liberal Party.
“One factor is that the NDP incumbent MPP is now the federal Liberal candidate in that riding,” he said. “That gives her supporters permission to vote Liberal.”
Maggi also pointed to what he described as a broader province-wide realignment that began in the last provincial election. While the Liberals earned roughly 10 per cent more of the popular vote than the NDP, they secured fewer seats due to vote distribution and efficiency.
“I think that was a one-and-done situation,” he said. “The NDP will not be able to replicate getting fewer votes but more seats because that support was concentrated in their incumbent ridings. The electorate is not going to fall for that again.”
If the NDP hopes to retain the seat it has held since 2018, Maggi said it will face an uphill battle, particularly when it comes to recruiting a strong local candidate.
“It’s going to be hard for them,” he said. “They’ll have to recruit a star candidate to change the dynamic, and I don’t know who that candidate would be. I’ve been asked to speculate, and I have a hard time coming up with a name.”
However, Maggi noted that about 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided in both the provincial and federal races, leaving room for movement as the campaigns unfold.
“The average person doesn’t even know there’s going to be a by-election, never mind two of them,” he said. “With 20 per cent undecided, things could shift significantly as opinions solidify.”
The poll was conducted between Feb. 20 and Feb. 22 among 464 adults aged 18 and older living in Scarborough Southwest. The survey was carried out by live agents. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
