What to know
- Manitoba has declared a public health emergency after HIV cases rose sharply from 9 in 2019 to 328 in 2025, with the province among the highest rates in Canada.
- Public health officials link the rise in Manitoba to overlapping factors including homelessness, substance use, mental health challenges, and socio-economic inequality.
- In contrast, Ontario officials report a modest decline in new HIV diagnoses, with 865 cases in 2024 compared to 925 in 2023.
- Toronto Public Health data shows reported HIV cases have also dropped, with 256 cases in 2025 compared to 446 in 2024, marking a 10-year low rate.
As Manitoba declares a public health emergency amid a sharp rise in HIV cases, Ontario public health officials say new diagnoses in the province are beginning to decline.
On May 7, Manitoba declared a public health emergency after new HIV cases rose sharply from 90 in 2019 to 328 in 2025.
The province continues to experience some of the highest HIV rates in Canada. In 2024, Manitoba reported 19.5 cases per 100,000 people, more than three times the national rate of 5.5 per 100,000.
According to the province, the highest number of new HIV cases are in Winnipeg. In the province, HIV is most commonly acquired through injection drug use and unprotected heterosexual sex.
The province says the increase is linked to a convergence of homelessness, mental health concerns, substance use and socio-economic inequality.
More than 50 per cent of new cases in Manitoba have been diagnosed in women, with most newly diagnosed female patients under the age of 40.
While Manitoba grapples with rising infections, Ontario public health officials say the province is seeing signs of improvement after several years of fluctuating case numbers.
Public Health Ontario physician Dr. Austin Zygmunt says HIV diagnoses in Ontario remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2020 before declining during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Then we saw the number decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, before increasing again in 2022 and 2023,” he said.
Zygmunt says first-time HIV diagnoses in Ontario reached 925 in 2023, equivalent to a rate of 5.9 cases per 100,000 people. However, 2024 data shows a modest decline.
“It’s been a modest decline to 865 cases, a decrease of around 6.5 per cent compared to 2023,” Zygmunt said. “That’s a rate of 5.4 per 100,000 population.”
Toronto continues to account for the largest share of first-time HIV diagnoses in Ontario, although officials say that proportion has been decreasing.
“It was 58 per cent in 2019, and in 2023 it was 44 per cent,” Zygmunt said.
In a statement to Now Toronto, Toronto Public Health said that as of April 15, 2026, a total of 256 HIV cases had been reported in Toronto for 2025. This marks a decrease from 446 reported cases in 2024.
The health agency said the rate observed in 2025 is currently the lowest reported over the past 10-year surveillance period.
Public health officials say continued testing, prevention programs and access to treatment remain critical to reducing transmission rates and supporting people living with HIV.
“The surveillance data that we produce is used by decision makers to help inform policy and programs for those both at risk of HIV and living with HIV,” Zygmunt said. “It’s important that people get tested if they’re at risk.”
