Ontario’s pandemic is following a similar curve to the UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany – all countries that are now in lockdown.
On Thursday afternoon, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health Adalsteinn Brown presented modelling data by the province’s science advisory table that projects COVID-19 case growth between 6,000 and 7,000 per day by mid-December in the worst-case scenario.
The modelling projections show the pandemic worsening widely across all public health indicators, with varying degrees of impact in different parts of Ontario.
The rate of growth was near four per cent over the past seven days and rose to six per cent over the past three days, Brown said.
The rate of COVID-19 growth in the worst-case scenario is five per cent, which Brown called an “optimistic” scenario if no new measures are undertaken.
“At a five per cent rate of growth, which may be considered somewhere between the current and an optimistic scenario, our case numbers will likely exceed several jurisdictions in Europe that are now in lockdown,” Brown said during a press briefing. “We’re starting to mount the same curve that they did earlier on this fall.”
At a three per cent rate of growth, cases could hit between 3,000 and 4,000 daily infections by mid-December without new measures, he said.
The modelling data projects Ontario will exceed the 150-bed occupancy threshold for intensive care units in the next two weeks across all scenarios. The province will surpass 400 beds in six weeks in the worst-case scenario.
Provincial officials have said the 150-bed threshold is the point when hospitals must start cancelling surgeries to accommodate the increase in COVID-19 patients.
There has been a 61 per cent increase in hospitalizations in the past three weeks and 167 per cent increase over past six weeks. However, in a more positive development the length of stay for COVID-19 patients that require ventilation has gone down, Brown said.
The mortality rate is increasing in long-term care homes, with 71 deaths reported in the last seven days.
“Based on what we’re seeing in the models, if we continue on with the current levels of restrictions, I would not expect to see any deviation from the current results,” Brown said. “You’d continue to see growth.
“I do not believe there’s a way the cases will change without action,” he added.
Modelling data presented late last month predicted daily case growth stay between 800 and 1,200 in Ontario throughout November.
Today’s data comes as Ontario hit a new record high of 1,575 cases in a 24-hour period. The seven-day rolling average in the province has reached 1,299. A week ago, the average was at 982.
Ontario recently introduced a colour-coded COVID-19 early warning framework that uses public health indicators to trigger various degrees of lockdowns.
On Wednesday, the Toronto Star reported that Shelley Deeks, a senior official at Public Health Ontario, recommended setting thresholds in the “red level” – the highest level – four times lower than what Premier Doug Ford’s government ultimately decided on.
Other infectious disease experts have criticized the government for setting the thresholds too high.
Asked about the Star report during a press conference in Hamilton today, the premier said it was “totally inaccurate.”
“That’s one doctor’s perspective that sits on the disease prevention table,” he said.
Ford said Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health David Williams recommended the framework and it was approved by cabinet.
“How do you deal with the mental health of people? It’s easy for people to say just shut everything down when they’re guaranteed a pay cheque every single week.
“The approach of just saying shut everything down is not the approach we’re taking,” he added.
Earlier this week, Toronto announced indoor dining and fitness classes will continue to be prohibited when the city moves into the red level on November 14. The additional measures are on top of the red level measures.
“Forget the colours and stay home”
On Thursday, Toronto Public Health reported another 500 new COVID-19 cases. There are now 164 COVID-19 patients in hospital in Toronto, including 36 people in intensive care.
Mayor John Tory said during a press briefing at City Hall on Thursday by urging Torontonians not to fixate on the province’s colour-coded levels and just stay home.
“I wanted to focus today not on the red or the green or the yellow or the stage one, two, six, 12, purples – none of that stuff,” he urged. “Just stay home.
“Please don’t socialize with people that you don’t live with. Please don’t have people over,” the mayor said. “Please stay home except if you have to go to work or to school or pick up some essentials or to exercise.”
Medical Officer of Health Eileen de Villa said Toronto has cumulatively confirmed 2,432 new infections over the past five days.
“It’s safe to assume then that there are more cases of COVID-19 in the community than we identify through testing,” she said. “You should assume COVID-19 is everywhere.”
De Villa emphasized that people should not socialize in parks or dine on patios with anyone they do not live with.
“Avoid in-person contact with people you don’t live with. It won’t be forever but it should be for the foreseeable future,” she said. “Infections are very high in Toronto and we need to get them down.”
De Villa also announced that Toronto Public Health (TPH) has introduced a new automated text-messaging and voicemail notification service. The new notification system draws on visitor and customer logs from venues.
A low-risk contact will receive a text messaging letting them know they will receive a call. That is followed by an automated voice messaging indicating that the person saying when and where they were exposed to COVID-19 and instructions on how to self-monitor for symptoms.
De Villa said the automated service has so far reached 600 people with a success rate of around 97 per cent. TPH is now using it to send messages to high-risk contacts.
