What to know
- Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 47 per cent to 40 per cent among decided and leaning voters, down from an 11-point lead two weeks ago.
- Cost of living and housing affordability are the top concerns, accounting for 42 per cent of first-mentioned issues.
- The race varies significantly by geography and age, with Chow stronger downtown and Bradford leading in Etobicoke and among voters aged 18 to 34.
- The Liaison Strategies survey of 1,000 Toronto residents was conducted Sept. 19–20 and has a reported margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
Toronto’s mayoral race is tightening, with a new poll showing Mayor Olivia Chow’s lead over Councillor Brad Bradford shrinking to seven points.
The latest Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey shows Chow has the support of 47 per cent of decided and leaning voters, compared with 40 per cent for Bradford and 10 per cent for Chris Alexander. Three per cent support a different candidate else.
Two weeks ago, Chow led Bradford 50 per cent to 39 per cent. She has dropped three points while he has gained one.
“Chow’s cushion is smaller,” said Liaison principal David Valentin. “It’s a closer result, but not enough to establish a new trend.”
Candidates react
On Tuesday morning, Chow said the only poll that matters is election day.
“The most important poll would be on election day as people come up to vote,” she said while speaking to reporters.
She pointed to her campaign’s proposal to cap TTC fares after 10 rides per week as part of her focus on affordability.
“It’s important to keep life affordable for folks,” Chow said, adding that more campaign promises are coming.
In a statement to Now Toronto, Bradford’s campaign pointed to the narrowing gap.
“Two weeks ago, Liaison had this race at 11 points. Today it’s 7,” said spokesperson Laryssa Waler. “Our numbers are moving in the right direction.”
Bradford’s campaign said Toronto needs a change at City Hall, arguing residents are paying more while getting less.
“Toronto isn’t broken. It’s stuck,” Bradford said. “Our best days aren’t behind us, they’re ahead of us.”
In a statement to Now Toronto, Alexander said the poll shows why his campaign is in the race, arguing that voters are concerned about affordability and the direction of the city.
“This is an affordability and change election, and it needs a mayor who has managed budgets this size before, not one learning on the job while your costs go up,” Alexander said.
Affordability tops the list
The poll also found cost of living was the most frequently named top issue, at 23 per cent, followed by housing affordability at 19 per cent, crime and public safety at 17 per cent and traffic and congestion at 13 per cent.
Together, cost of living and housing account for 42 per cent of first responses, while seven per cent name property taxes.
The race varies across the city. Chow leads Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent in North York and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in Scarborough. Downtown is stronger territory for Chow, where she leads 60 per cent to 27 per cent, while Bradford leads 54 per cent to 33 per cent in Etobicoke.
There is also a sharp age divide. Bradford leads among voters aged 18 to 34, 47 per cent to 41 per cent, while Chow leads 57 per cent to 33 per cent among those aged 35 to 49.
Chow’s job approval is 52 per cent, compared with 42 per cent who disapprove.
Among all voters, 17 per cent remain undecided. Chow has 39 per cent, Bradford 33 per cent and Alexander eight per cent.
Liaison surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents from Sept. 19 to 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
