Toronto summer forecast: Environment Canada warns of hot, humid season with high-risk heat waves

The weather organization reported a high chance of a warmer-than-usual season.

Posted 16 seconds agoSidra Jafri

Summer day in Toronto (Courtesy SHAHBAZ ZAMANPexels) — Environment Canada is forecasting a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures across Toronto in the months ahead. (Courtesy SHAHBAZ ZAMAN/Pexels)

What to know

Toronto is expected to experience a hotter-than-average summer, with Environment Canada forecasting a 73 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures between June and August.
The warmer weather comes as the city prepares for a busy season of FIFA World Cup events, concerts, festivals, and increased tourism, potentially creating more challenging conditions at crowded outdoor gatherings.
The City of Toronto says residents can access more than 500 cooling spaces, including libraries, community centres, pools, splash pads, and malls, and encourages people to stay hydrated, seek shade or air conditioning, and wear light clothing during heat waves.
Environment Canada also warns that hotter, drier conditions in parts of Canada could increase wildfire risk and worsen air quality, while vulnerable groups such as seniors, children, people with chronic illnesses, outdoor workers, and those experiencing homelessness face higher risks from extreme heat.

The first day of summer rang in for Canada on Sunday, with the summer solstice making it the longest day of the year. As the city gears up for one of its busiest tourism seasons in years, Environment Canada is forecasting a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures across the region in the months ahead.

According to the federal weather agency’s seasonal outlook, Torontonians may actually have to remove some layers of clothing, as they project a warmer-than-average temperature for the season.

By comparison, Environment Canada gives Toronto a 22 per cent chance of experiencing near-normal temperatures and just a five per cent chance of a cooler-than-normal season.

Busier than usual season

With a busier summer than usual for the city, with Toronto seeing the FIFA World Cup, major concerts such as Usher Raymond & Chris Brown and The Foo Fighters, summer festivals, and a surge of tourism due to it all, the city may be in for a muggy season.

The city is currently hosting FIFA World Cup matches and fan festivals while also preparing for a summer lineup that includes VELD Music Festival, the Toronto Caribbean Carnival, Taste of the Danforth, the Canadian National Exhibition and dozens of concerts and outdoor events.

Millions of visitors are expected to travel through Toronto over the coming months, adding to crowds at parks, patios, festivals and public gathering spaces.

For soccer fans, warmer temperatures could make for ideal conditions at outdoor watch parties and fan zones.

But prolonged heat can also create challenges, particularly when large crowds gather outdoors for extended periods.

What does Environment Canada report?

A hotter-than-average summer does not necessarily mean every day will be scorching.

The weather organization reported that Toronto will most likely see a 73 per cent chance of higher temperatures than in past years for the summers, during the June to August period.

This compares to the city seeing a 22 per cent change of average temperatures, and a 5 per cent chance of lower than normal temperatures.

Toronto could still experience cooler stretches, rainy days and occasional temperature swings.

What does this heat mean for Toronto?

Every year, Toronto welcomes over 28 million visitors in the city, a number that’s expected to increase this year with Toronto-based FIFA World Cup games and other concerts and festivals.

The city has been seeing dozens of outdoor watch parties and FIFA World Cup activations ahead of the summer, something set to continue near to the end of July as the competition plays-on. The heat sets up the perfect conditions to enjoy the beautiful game at these outdoor venues.

Additionally, outdoor festivals and events such as the Toronto Caribbean Carnival, Veld music festival, Beaches Jazz Festival, the Toronto Outdoor Picture Show, the Taste of the Danforth may be impacted by the higher temperatures as well, with events like these thriving in warm weather, but becoming more dangerous as numbers rise.

Extreme heat expectations

The increased foot traffic would also mean tighter crowds and increased body heat on top of an already sweltering day.

For conditions like these, the City of Toronto has a Heat Relief Strategy in place, which tackles heat exhaustion and other temperature related concerns, illnesses and deaths by providing residents with a city-wide network of cooling spaces to step into during the summer.

More than 500 cooling spaces are available throughout the summer, including:

Public libraries
Community centres
Civic buildings
Swimming pools
Splash pads
Shopping malls
Partner facilities

The city encourages residents to stay hydrated, seek shade or air-conditioned spaces when possible, and wear lightweight, light-coloured clothing during hot weather.

As the map of cooling centres is currently out-of-service on Toronto’s website, the city asks residents to call 311 for any information they may need.

Wildfire smoke could also be a factor

Although warmer temperatures may be welcomed in Toronto and some parts of Canada, areas such as British Columbia, the eastern Northwest Territories, Nunavut, northeastern Quebec, and Labrador are expected to see drier temperatures.

The country is also expected to see El Niño conditions this season, meaning extreme climate, such as wildfires, may occur due to the surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean becoming warmer than average.

Environment Canada also warned that these drier temperatures and possibly fires could contribute to poorer air quality, advising residents to stay updated on conditions using Canada’s Air Quality Health Index.

How to stay safe during hot days and who is most vulnerable

Extreme heat can affect anyone, but some groups face higher risks than others.

According to the City of Toronto, those most vulnerable include:

Older adults
Infants and young children
People with chronic health conditions
Outdoor workers
People exercising in the heat
Individuals with limited mobility
People experiencing homelessness

Officials also remind residents never to leave children or pets inside parked vehicles, where temperatures can rise rapidly even on relatively mild days.

To stay cool, the City of Toronto recommends the following:

Residents stay in an air-conditioned space or in the shade as much as possible
Stay hydrated
Dress for the weather by wearing lightweight, light-coloured, and loose clothing.

Additionally, the city advises to never leave children or pets in hot locked cars, as the interior of a vehicle tends to be hotter than outdoor temperatures.

According to Transport Canada, heat within vehicles can double in minutes compared to outside temperatures.

The city says residents can prepare early for extreme heat by creating emergency kits with food, water and other necessities inside.

Symptoms of heat-related illness

The City of Toronto asks residents to pay attention to how they are feeling in the heat, and to any symptoms that may arise.

Symptoms include:

Heat rash
Muscle cramps
Swelling in the hands, feet, and ankles
Fainting
Heat exhaustion
Heat stroke

Residents should call 911 immediately if they are caring for someone who has a high body temperature and is either unconscious, confused or has stopped sweating.