What to know
- The Ontario Liberals lead the Progressive Conservatives 38% to 33% among decided and leaning voters, according to a new Liaison Strategies poll.
- Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating has fallen to 24%, the lowest recorded in the firm’s Ontario tracker, while 72% disapprove of his performance.
- Most respondents (71%) believe Ontario is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 26% who say the province is on the right track.
- The poll was conducted during the controversy over Toronto-area PC MPPs claiming taxpayer-funded hotel expenses, though respondents were not asked about the issue.
A new poll suggests the Ontario Liberals would win if a provincial election were held today, as Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating falls to its lowest level so far.
The poll, released Friday by Liaison Strategies, found the Ontario Liberals hold a five-point lead over Ford’s Progressive Conservatives among decided and leaning voters.
The Liberals sit at 38 per cent support, compared with 33 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives and 24 per cent for the NDP.
Among all respondents, the Liberals stand at 33 per cent, followed by the PCs at 29 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent.
Ford’s approval reaches new low
While the ballot numbers favour the Liberals, Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin said Ford’s personal approval ratings are an even greater concern for the governing PCs.
“Just 24 per cent approve of the job he is doing as Premier, while 72 per cent disapprove. That is the lowest approval and highest disapproval we have measured for Ford in this Ontario tracker,” Valentin said.
The survey also found Ontarians remain pessimistic about the province’s direction. Just 26 per cent of respondents said Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 71 per cent believe it is on the wrong track.
“Ontarians are being squeezed by household costs, and now they are seeing a government explain why members who live near Queen’s Park were billing hotel stays. That is a rough fairness test for any government, but especially one with Ford’s approval numbers,” Valentin said.
Hotel expense controversy looms over government
Valentin noted the poll was conducted amid controversy over several Progressive Conservative MPPs from Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) claiming taxpayer-funded hotel expenses in Toronto despite living in the region.
Read More
However, he cautioned against drawing a direct link between the controversy and the polling results, noting respondents were not asked about the issue.
“But when an incumbent premier is already at 24 per cent approval, stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame,” he said.
Regional breakdown
The Liberals posted their strongest numbers in Toronto, where they lead with 46 per cent support.
In the 905 region, the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are tied at 40 per cent.
The Progressive Conservatives maintain their strongest support in Eastern Ontario, where they lead with 42 per cent. Meanwhile, the NDP performs best in Northern Ontario and South Central Ontario, according to the poll.
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ontarians between July 20 and July 21, 2026, using interactive voice response (IVR) technology.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
