What to know
- Canada could be more than 20 years behind its 2030 climate target if current emissions trends and policies remain unchanged, according to a Canadian Climate Institute and Navius Research analysis.
- Canada’s 2030 goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels.
- The analysis also finds that Canada would not be on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 under current conditions.
- Climate experts warn that falling behind could mean more extreme weather and economic consequences, including challenges keeping pace with countries moving toward cleaner economies.
- CCI President Rick Smith says policy changes could improve Canada’s trajectory, but the country needs to act now: “We need to start now.”
A new analysis of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory and climate policies is suggesting that the country is now more than 20 years behind its 2030 climate goals if nothing changes.
The Canadian Climate Institute and Navius Research study analyzed current emission numbers and governmental policies to determine emissions trajectory.
Considering the federal government’s climate policy changes over the past year, such as weakening industrial carbon pricing and removing mandatory zero-emission vehicle sales targets for automakers, the study concluded that the country would be more than 20 years late to its 2030 goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent of 2005 levels.
If nothing changes, Canada will also not be on track to hit its net zero emissions target by 2050, according to the analysis.
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A threat to global climate
President of the CCI Rick Smith tells Now Toronto that not hitting its climate targets could come with major consequences not only for Canada, but for the entire globe.
After facing record-breaking wildfires, frequent heat waves and devastating storms, Smith suggested that inaction could lead to more extreme weather across the country.
“Canada is the 11th biggest greenhouse gas polluter in the world. And of course, fighting climate change and reducing greenhouse gasses, if it’s going to be successful, has to be a shared enterprise across all countries,” he said.
“That lack of progress on Canada’s part, has an impact on planetary warming. We’re coming through another summer of wildfires, flooding, drought across our country and around the world.”
Another CCI report published last week suggested that Canada could also become 5ºC hotter by 2100 under current conditions, leading to more extreme rainfall, droughts, and unbearably hot days.
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Economic, political impact
In addition to more extreme weather, Smith suggested that not reaching its climate goals could set Canada back economically and politically.
Canada has signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty that aims to take action to limit global warming, which includes the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent below 2010 levels by 2030.
According to Smith, while failing to reach these global climate targets doesn’t lead to concrete enforcement or punishments, it could come at a statutory loss for Canada, especially as other countries continue to make progress.
“The only repercussions would be a loss of respect for Canada’s position,” he said.
“Some countries are making considerable progress. In one year alone, the European Union reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by over eight per cent, China continues to dramatically lower its rate of greenhouse gas increase. So, Canada really does stand out amongst G7 nations for meager progress.”
With many international governments working together to reduce emissions, lagging behind could also keep Canada from being able to develop new trade relationships, and from becoming a leader in emerging economic trends.
“There’s no question that the economy of the future is going to be a decarbonized one. We see the economy of the future is going to be largely powered by clean electricity. We see other countries making dramatic progress in that regard, and Canada needs to keep up,” Smith added.
“It’s not an exaggeration to say that having an effective system of national carbon pricing is the price of admission to increase our trade with allies like the E.U., China, India, and others.”
Is it still possible to hit the target?
As pointed out by Smith, climate experts have long been warning that climate goals are getting more and more out of reach.
Although the expert said that the CCI analysis indicated that Canada is much better off under current policies than under no climate-friendly policies, a lot more needs to be done in order to get back on track.
“Policy matters, policy works, it’s possible to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and grow our economy. But these take specific government decisions. [It] doesn’t happen magically. [It] doesn’t happen on its own,” he said.
According to the expert, if the current federal government delivers on its initial promises, including achieving 90 per cent of new car sales being electric by 2040, doubling electricity support and fixing industrial carbon pricing, Canada’s emissions trajectory could significantly improve.
However, right now, the best case scenario would be getting back on track for the 2050 net zero goal.
“We can’t wake up on the morning of 2049 and decide that we’re going to decarbonize our country all in one year. These things take time, so we need to start now,” Smith added.
