What to know
- Wiarton Willie called an early spring… but Toronto’s temperature doesn’t really look like it yet. On Feb. 2, Ontario’s famous groundhog didn’t see his shadow, tipping early spring — part of the annual Groundhog Day tradition.
- Official weather data tells a slightly different story. Environment Canada says February’s been a bit chillier than normal, and while March could trend warmer, there’s only a slim signal for above-average temps, so winter gear still makes sense.
- Toronto’s forecast this week includes snow and flurries, overnight cooling and wind chills dipping into the negatives, showing spring hasn’t fully arrived — at least not yet.
Groundhogs predicted early spring, but that’s still up in the air.
On Feb. 2, Ontario’s Wiarton Willie did not see his shadow, predicting an early spring coming to Toronto.
But almost one month has passed since his prediction, and is an early spring still in the cards for Toronto? Now Toronto asked Environment Canada for some answers.
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Meteorologist Trudy Kidd explains that she analyzes numbers rather than predictions, including what would be considered “above normal temperatures” temperatures in February and March.
“At Pearson, the mean temperature has been -5.7 C, and that’s a bit colder than what we would typically see for February. [Its] mean temperature is typically – 4.4 C. So yeah, we’ve been on the chilly side, but what I’m seeing right now is it’s still within the range of what we would normally see, so it’s not unusually cold,” Kidd said.
Looking ahead, she says March “could be warmer than normal, but it’s not a strong signal.” So, she advises Torontonians not to get too excited and put their winter jackets away just yet.
“We’ll probably have some swings between colder and warmer than normal for March, but when all is said and done, there’s just a small, small likelihood towards warmer than normal,” Kidd said.
She reminds Torontonians to keep layers handy, windshield wiper fluid topped up, and to check the forecast where they are (and where they’re going, if travelling.)
She concludes, “Just because we’ve had cold weather and snowy weather doesn’t necessarily mean that’s going to continue, but it also doesn’t mean it’s going to stop.”
Forecast this week in Toronto
Meanwhile, there’s a special weather statement in effect in Toronto today with five to 10 centimeters of snow expected.
Though it should end overnight, there is a chance of flurries expected throughout the week.
Evenings will be especially chilly this week with the wind chill, with a low of -10 expected on Wednesday, low of -11 on Saturday and a low of -16 on Sunday.
