What to know
- A new Mainstreet Research poll shows Olivia Chow leading John Tory 43 per cent to 34 per cent in a potential Toronto mayoral race.
- Despite Chow’s lead, 54 per cent of respondents say they preferred the city’s direction under Tory.
- Brad Bradford (17 per cent) and Anthony Furey (6 per cent) trail, and their supporters could influence the race if Tory runs.
- Only Bradford has officially declared his candidacy; Toronto’s next municipal election is set for Oct. 26, 2026.
A new Mainstreet Research poll shows Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow leading former mayor John Tory in a potential mayoral race, though a majority of voters say they preferred the direction of the city under Tory’s leadership.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Chow with 43 per cent support, nine points ahead of Tory at 34 per cent.
City Councillor Brad Bradford, who first announced his plans to run in the race to the Brandon Gonez Show last fall, trails with 17 per cent support, while former mayoral candidate Anthony Furey sits at six per cent.
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Despite Chow’s lead among decided and leaning voters, 54 per cent of respondents said they preferred the direction Toronto was headed under Tory.
“Although Olivia Chow currently enjoys a lead among decided voters, this could change if John Tory enters the race and creates a two-horse contest between himself and Chow,” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said in a statement. “With Bradford and Furey supporters overwhelmingly favouring the direction under Tory, it would be difficult for Chow to maintain her advantage.”
Maggi added that if Bradford, Furey and other potential contenders are able to collectively hold more than 20 per cent of voter support, the path for a Tory comeback victory narrows significantly.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews between Feb. 20 to Feb. 22, among a sample of 802 Toronto residents aged 18 and older.
As of publication, Chow, Furey and Tory have not yet confirmed whether they plan to enter the race.
Chow, who is set to wrap up her first term as mayor later this year, was elected in a 2023 by-election after Tory resigned after admitting to having an affair with a former staffer.
Torontonians weigh in
As the city moves closer to the municipal election this fall, Now Toronto hit the streets to ask residents how they feel about Chow’s first term.
Elliot, a Toronto resident, said he does not have strong opinions overall but supports some of Chow’s work, including protecting bike lanes.
When asked whether he would choose between Tory and Chow, his answer was clear.
“I’m a one-topic voter, bike lanes, so I would choose Olivia,” he said.
Another resident, Michael, described Chow’s performance as “OK.”
“Nothing to write home about, if I’m being honest. A lot of people have a lot of complaints, I think they’re overblown. She did fine,” he said.
While he did not express strong enthusiasm for Chow, he said he would not vote for Tory.
“I’ve had enough of him,” he said.
Another resident named Michael also said he prefers Chow.
“I think she’s pretty proactive. The issues she’s digging into are ones I think are relevant,” he said. “I didn’t mind Tory, he was OK, but I prefer Chow’s agenda.”
However, Marla said she was unconvinced that Chow’s first term had been “amazing.”
“I don’t feel like much has progressed over the last few years,” she said.
She added that she misses Tory.
“I have to evaluate, but I was happy with him before,” she said.
Toronto’s next municipal election is scheduled for Oct. 26, 2026.
