New poll shows close Chow-Bradford race as Tory steps aside

A new poll suggests a potential two-way mayoral race between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford could be tight, as John Tory has announced he will not run in the upcoming municipal by-election.

The poll, released March 4 and conducted by Abacus Data, found that 37 per cent of respondents would vote for Olivia Chow if the election were held tomorrow. Meanwhile, 34 per cent said they would support Bradford, while 29 per cent remain undecided.

Among respondents familiar with both candidates, the race narrows even further with 39 per cent of support for Chow, 38 per cent of backing for Bradford, and 24 per cent are undecided.

The survey was conducted before John Tory’s announcement on Tuesday that he would not seek office in the upcoming by-election. Abacus Data founder and CEO David Coletto said the results do not reflect that development, but he expects the decision could shift additional support toward Bradford.

“I would say most people who would have supported Mayor Tory in the past are likely going to move to support someone like Brad Bradford over Mayor Chow,” Coletto said in an interview with Now Toronto. “I think their politics are much closer together.”

With John Tory Out, Bradford is statistically tied with Chow in Toronto Mayoral Election

My polling shows Mayor Olivia Chow locked in a tight contest with Brad Bradford, whose higher net favourables and room to grow suggest this is a true two-person race.… pic.twitter.com/iaXvIe5pea

— David Coletto 🇨🇦 (@DavidColetto) March 4, 2026

Coletto noted that incumbents like Chow typically benefit from greater name recognition. However, he added that growing frustrations among Torontonians, including concerns about transit, crime and taxes, could make the race more competitive.

“We see it across the country in the polling, people are frustrated with a number of things in the city, whether that be congestion and how hard it is getting around,” he said. “And I think there is a desire to see a lot of those things changed, and perhaps not enough confidence that Mayor Chow is the right person to do it.”

Coletto also pointed to the 2023 by-election, which Chow won with 32 per cent of the vote in a crowded field according to Coletto. That means the majority of voters supported other candidates.

“I think what this poll shows is that a two-horse race is a harder environment for Ms. Chow,” he said. “If there were many candidates running, she would likely have a much better chance of winning.”

As of publication, Bradford is the only candidate to officially enter the mayoral race, while Olivia Chow has not yet confirmed whether she will run. The 2026 municipal election will be held on Oct. 26, 2026.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,001 Toronto adults between Jan. 22 and 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Torontonians weigh in

Now Toronto spoke with residents across the city to hear who they would support in a potential head-to-head race between Chow and Bradford. For Zelda Pelletier, the choice is clear.

“I really like Chow coming in, and I haven’t had any issues or complaints so far, so I’d go for Chow in this case, let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing,” Pelletier said.

Another resident, Andy Wagenaar, agrees.

“Definitely Chow. I’ve only lived in the city six months, but already I know my Toronto politics. I know that Olivia Chow, although not perfect, she’s been a lot better,” Wagenaar said.

Now Toronto also spoke with a resident named Ariel J., who said he would also vote for Chow, largely because she is “very pro-union.”

“I’m in a union, so I value that,” he said. “I think she inherited a lot of issues, and all things considered, she’s done pretty well. I’d like to see her get a second term.”